《Weekly Outlook》Key financial and economic events to watch in the coming week:

*China's September consumption growth exceeds 1*

　　The National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday (19th) that China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.4%, and rose 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. In September, the country's industrial output from designated enterprises increased 5.5% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and reaching a six-month high. Retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 4.24 trillion, up 1.1% year-on-year, better than the expected 0.6% rise and the highest level in six months. Fixed asset investment nationwide in the first three quarters declined 7.2% year-on-year, slightly better than the market expectation of a 7.3% drop, while fixed asset investment excluding real estate development fell 4.2%. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that overall, the national economy has advanced under pressure in the first three quarters, but the international environment remains complex and volatile, domestic demand remains insufficient, and the foundation for stable and improving economic performance still needs to be consolidated.

*AI boom faces cost of capital test*

　　The credit default swap (CDS) of AI cloud service provider CoreWeave (US.CRWV) rose to a record intraday high, reflecting market expectations of a 60% chance of debt default within five years. However, NVIDIA (US.NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang reassured the market, stating that CoreWeave's financial strength continues to improve and that NVIDIA does not need to provide financial backstop support. The high financing cost of AI has long been a 'gray rhino' concern in the financial sector. If customer demand growth cannot be promptly converted into free cash flow, companies may still face refinancing pressure despite strong order books. Goldman Sachs' latest estimate suggests that capital expenditures for hyperscale cloud giants will reach as high as USD 1.2 trillion next year, with over 35% of construction spending expected to rely on external debt issuance and financing. AI demand may be real, but that does not mean every AI investment will generate reasonable returns. As bond markets start demanding higher risk premiums, the valuation logic for the entire AI sector could also change.

*South Korea expected to pause consecutive rate hikes*

　　The Bank of Korea will announce its interest rate decision on the 22nd. Having already raised rates in July and August, the central bank is expected to pause this time, awaiting further inflation data before making further decisions. South Korea's overall inflation rate in September was 2.9%, still above the central bank's 2% target. Central bank Governor Shin Hyun-soo previously stated that rising energy costs and strong AI demand continue to exert inflationary pressure, indicating that the risk of further monetary tightening in South Korea cannot be ignored. AI products are driving up costs across related supply chains, and energy prices continue to rise. However, as one of the economies most benefiting from AI technological development, the central bank faces a dilemma: it cannot easily justify halting rate hikes due to slowing economic growth, while also worrying that higher interest rates could increase household borrowing and corporate financing burdens, suppress domestic demand, and negatively impact the highly volatile South Korean stock market, potentially triggering financial risks.

*Tesla, Meta earnings reports arrive*

　　The third-quarter earnings season for US stocks enters a crucial week, with Tesla and Meta among the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants set to report first. Tesla delivered over 480,000 vehicles in Q3, and its quarterly results will further reveal whether delivery growth can translate into profitability. Investors are particularly focused on average vehicle selling prices, gross margins, energy storage business, and investments in autonomous driving and robotics projects. For Meta, attention will center on whether advertising revenue can sustain growth and whether massive AI infrastructure spending will erode profits and free cash flow.

 　　*The above table summarizes the board meeting dates announced by listed issuers. This list may not include all such events and is for reference only. Please monitor announcements from listed issuers at all times.