[ET Net News Agency, 05 June 2025] In May, the US ADP reported an increase of 37,000
jobs in the private sector, below expectations and marking the lowest growth in two years.
Following the data release, US President Trump immediately posted on social media, urging
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. Meituan (03690) showed strong
performance in the early session, driving the Hang Seng Index up over 250 points. However,
ahead of the afternoon close, pharmaceutical and automotive stocks pulled back, narrowing
the Hang Seng's midday gain to 98 points or 0.4%, closing at 23,752, with a turnover
exceeding HKD 124.1 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 8,623, up 46
points or 0.5%. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,267, up 48 points or 0.9%.

"Tam Long Wai: HSI held below 23,900 for three consecutive months"

The Hang Seng Index continued to rise today, approaching the previous peak of 23,917
points. Tam Long Wai, Co-Director of Fulbright Securities Limited, told ET Net News Agency
that while the overall market is bullish, it is unlikely to surpass 24,000 in the short
term. He pointed out that, based on the monthly chart, the HSI has been constrained by the
100-month moving average (around 23,915 points) for three consecutive months, indicating
that 23,900 is a significant resistance level. Currently, there is still a lack of
catalysts for a breakout, and he expects the HSI to fluctuate between 23,100 and 23,900
points in the short term.
With the US ADP job numbers hitting a two-year low in May, Trump has called for a rate
cut again. Tam noted that any rate cut is a collective decision of the FOMC's twenty
members, and he believes Trump will have little influence on this. According to federal
funds futures, the next rate cut is expected in September.

"New Consumer F4: focus on overbought conditions, valuation, and lock-up dates"

Recently, the market has shifted to focus on new consumer concepts, with the "New
Consumer F4" - Laopu Gold (06181), Pop Mart (09992), Mixue Group (02097), and Mao Geping
(01318) - all hitting new highs yesterday, though they all declined today.
Laopu Gold's share price broke the HKD 1,000 mark today, peaking at HKD 1,015 before
facing selling pressure, dropping to a low of HKD 908 in early trading. Tam indicated that
the new consumer trend aligns with the current consumption recovery logic and is viewed
positively by the market. Adjustments during overbought conditions are normal. He added
that the New Consumer F4 stocks are strong semi-new stocks, and when trading these,
investors should pay attention to the RSI indicator for overbought signals, whether
valuations are too high, and key lock-up dates. He reminded investors that 28 June is the
lock-up expiry date for Laopu Gold, which could lead to price volatility. For those
without shares, Tam stated that even without considering the lock-up date, the current
price is not an attractive entry point, suggesting waiting for a pullback to HKD 840.
Tam further pointed out that as a retail brand, Laopu Gold's price-to-earnings ratio is
nearing 90 times, significantly higher than the typical 20 times for ordinary retail
stocks. Despite the boost from traditional gold methods, it is unlikely to maintain such a
high P/E ratio long-term, as the market has deviated from fundamentals and is more driven
by speculation.
Among the New Consumer F4, Tam is most optimistic about Pop Mart. He believes that Pop
Mart's IP image is very popular and is expanding from Mainland China to overseas markets,
first entering Europe and then the US, with significant potential abroad. In terms of
storytelling and growth, it is the richest. He recommends investors enter around HKD 220.

"Meituan faces internal competition; investors should avoid following southbound funds"

Meituan reached a high of HKD 147.3 during the session, breaking the 50-day moving
average and hitting a one-month high. Southbound funds net inflow on Wednesday (4 Jun) was
HKD 3.516 billion, down 10%. Among them, the most net bought stock was Meituan, which saw
a net purchase of HKD 1.414 billion, marking 13 consecutive trading days of interest from
southbound funds.
Tam candidly stated that investors do not need to follow southbound funds in trading
Meituan, as this is merely a short-term rebound. He reminded that Meituan and JD.com
(09618) are in competition. If investors are considering technology stocks, they should
focus more on Tencent (00700) and Xiaomi (01810).