[ET Net News Agency, 14 November 2025] Weaker expectations for a Fed rate cut in
December, combined with a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, put significant pressure on
US equities on Thursday (13th). All three major indices suffered heavy losses, as rising
pessimism over the interest rate outlook overshadowed the positive news of a government
shutdown resolution. Asia-Pacific markets also declined across the board, and Hong Kong
stocks were no exception. Led lower by the ATMXJ heavyweights, the Hang Seng Index fell by
over 400 points at one stage this morning, ending the half-day session at 26,732, down 340
points or 1.3 percent, with main board turnover surpassing HKD 125 billion. The Hang Seng
China Enterprises Index closed at 9,466, down 132 points or 1.4 percent. The Hang Seng
Tech Index stood at 5,849, losing 131 points or 2.2 percent.

"Ryan Chan: HSI likely to fluctuate between 26,500 and 27,000 in the near term"

Weak sentiment from global markets dragged the HSI sharply lower at the open, with the
index again falling below the 27,000 mark. Ryan Chan, an executive director of Eddid
Financial, told ET Net News Agency that if the HSI can hold above the 10-day moving
average (around 26,500), a rebound to 27,000 remains possible. However, from a technical
perspective, a double top has formed around the 27,000 level, and a convincing
breakthrough would require much stronger momentum. In the short term, the HSI is expected
to trade in a range between 26,500 and 27,000.
Hawkish remarks from some Fed officials have also weighed on sentiment. Minneapolis Fed
President Neel Kashkari, for example, noted the underlying resilience of economic activity
has exceeded expectations, though no decision has been made regarding the December
meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in
December has fallen further, with odds now roughly 50-50 between a cut and no change. Chan
said that while there is a case for a cut from a real economy perspective, the Fed's
actions remain data dependent. The US government shutdown has also disrupted the
collection of some economic data, limiting the Fed's operational flexibility. As a result,
the likelihood of a December rate cut is now only moderate.

"Alibaba and Baidu diverge on AI progress, reflecting differences in commercialisation"

Yesterday, Baidu (09888) and Alibaba (09988) both made headlines with their AI
developments, but the market reacted very differently. Baidu officially launched its
Wenxin large model 5.0 and GenFlow 3.0 at a major conference, with the latter touted as
the "world's largest general-purpose intelligent agent." However, the spotlight was stolen
by Alibaba, whose "Qianwen" project was revealed in the media. Alibaba is reportedly
quietly developing the "Qianwen" personal AI assistant app, based on its Qwen foundational
model, and positioned as a direct rival to ChatGPT. Stimulated by this news, Alibaba's
shares surged yesterday before partially retreating this morning, in stark contrast to
Baidu, which led blue chips lower.
Chan noted that the essence of the AI business lies in its ability to commercialise, and
the contrasting share price performances reflect differing market expectations for their
monetisation paths, rather than just the technical merits of the models. Baidu's AI is
largely tied to its search platform, essentially acting as a chat box, with a revenue
model limited to subscriptions, insufficient to cover the high costs of AI training. With
no clear business model, the market remains unconvinced. By contrast, Alibaba has multiple
AI application scenarios and front-end apps, and has accumulated several models. The
market expects its AI to integrate e-commerce and cloud businesses, creating synergies and
offering significant growth potential.
It is worth noting that Alibaba's "Qianwen" is reportedly set to add AI agent functions
to support shopping services across major e-commerce platforms, including Taobao.
On share price performance, Chan pointed out that Alibaba has fallen below the 50-day
moving average (HKD 160), with support at HKD 155. If this level fails to hold, the stock
will face greater short-term pressure. The first resistance is at HKD 165, with the next
at HKD 175.
As for Baidu, Chan believes its technical setup is stronger than Alibaba's, with a doji
star pattern suggesting a possible short-term rebound. In the near term, Baidu could test
the 10-day moving average at HKD 123.